GDP rose by 0.3 per cent in November 2023 following a fall the month before, data from the Office for National Statistics has revealed.
Following an unexpected contraction of 0.3 per cent in October, the UK economy is reported to have grown on a monthly basis in November.
The main contributor to this increase, according to the ONS, was the reported 0.4 per cent increase in service output in November, following a fall of 0.1 per cent in October.
A similar increase was reported in production output which grew by 0.3 per cent, after it fell 1.3 per cent the month before.
However, the construction sector was found to have decreased by 0.2 per cent in November 2023.
Although this did represent continuity with the 0.4 per cent fall that was recorded in October 2023.
Quilter Cheviot head of fixed interest research, Richard Carter, commented that the uplift in November is “just enough to bring the UK economy back to flat growth over these two months”.
Similar positivity was shown by Calculus CEO and co-founder, John Glencross, who stated the data shows “positive signs of growth” for the UK economy.
“Following a surprise contraction at the end of last year, today’s data is welcomed by markets, who will no doubt be gearing up to grapple with continued uncertainty into 2024,” he explained.
However, Carter warned that it leaves an “awful lot of pressure on the December figures” as even a slight downward turn would result in the “UK entering a technical recession” after Q3 GDP was revised down to a fall of 0.1 per cent at the end of last year.
Carter additionally warned that the most recent figures show how “precarious” the situation is for the UK economy and piles yet more pressure onto the Bank of England to cut interest rates.
“The Bank has managed not to tip the UK into a recession to date, but it is looking increasingly likely that its luck may be coming to an end,” he explained.
However, while monthly GDP rose, a decrease was observed among real GDP which was estimated to have fallen by 0.2 per cent in the three months to November 2023, compared with the three months to August 2023.
tom.dunstan@ft.com
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