Introduction
Meanwhile, China’s growth concerns at the start of the year meant commodities and emerging markets struggled, but in the past few months they appear to have rallied, with the MSCI Emerging Markets index gaining 7.5 per cent year to date to June 10, compared with the FTSE All-Share’s fall of 0.2 per cent, data from FE Analytics shows.
The oil price has also seen ups and downs, but with Brent crude hovering around a slightly more sustainable $50 a barrel mark, this could also provide support for a turnaround in the emerging markets.
As for the second half of the year, with the result of the EU referendum now apparent, the UK and Europe will be dealing with the fallout from a divisive campaign; the effect on the investment industry remains to be seen. In the US, the candidates are now all-but confirmed ahead of the November election, with – again – a divisive political environment potentially having knock-on effects for investor sentiment. Even the latter-day equity market powerhouse of Japan, which has been steadily reaping the benefits of Abenomics, is looking shaky after prime minister Shinzo Abe postponed another sales tax hike, and the Bank of Japan continues with its negative interest rate policy.
On the investment side, Marino Valensise, head of Barings’ multi-asset group, points out: “We are living in a world of uninspiring economic growth, dominated by low productivity and demographic issues. As a consequence, corporate profits continue to stagnate. Over the past 12 months, profitability has been further hit by developments in the currency and energy markets. More favourable trends in the US dollar and oil should improve growth and profitability dynamics, as well as investor sentiment. Beyond this, corporate buybacks will continue to underpin US earnings per share growth.
“Despite this, any improvement in profitability cannot be a long-term solution to one fundamental issue: the lack of economic growth. We will almost certainly see earnings growth improve over the next few quarters, but this is a low-quality trend. One cannot be sure the US dollar will behave in a stable fashion, given the Fed’s intent to embark on a tightening monetary policy cycle.”
Meanwhile the latest Pictet Barometer Report, ‘Dialling down equities’, suggests the recent revival in the Chinese economy might prove “short-lived”. It states: “Economic activity across China has cooled, which is worrying as the slowdown comes when authorities appear to be draining some of the liquidity they provided earlier in the year.
“The investment case for emerging market equity has weakened in other ways. Its appeal had stemmed from a weaker US dollar – which boosts commodities and eases corporations’ debt-servicing costs – and attractive valuations. Even though developing-world stocks look inexpensive relative to other equity markets – on a price-to-earnings basis they trade at a 25 per cent discount to the MSCI World index – the dollar has edged higher on speculation that the Fed may raise interest rates. At the same time, shifts in investor positioning suggest limited scope for gains. The recent rally was accompanied by a surge in investment inflows. The likelihood of similar inflows over the summer looks slim.”
While uncertainty on the global stage may have settled, enough potential headwinds remain to keep investors on their toes.
Nyree Stewart is features editor at Investment Adviser